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Started by Panthera onca at 05-14-2008 1:47 PM. Topic has 41 replies.
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   05-14-2008, 1:47 PM
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Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions

Played about 300 games and haven't gotten Super Wit, so I wrote an Excel script to simulate the process...

Assuming that the questions are given out completely randomly, on average you would have to play 611 games to see all 700 questions.

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   05-14-2008, 3:59 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
I've run this A LOT more times now 5000+ and looks like a more correct average is 722 games. I didn't have a large enough sample the first time to be statistically accurate.
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   05-14-2008, 4:55 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions

I've done some calculations on the odds of seeing all of the question by a particular games.

Let's assume the same question will not come up twice in the same game.   The odds of a particular question not appearing in N games is

.99^N

Thus the odds of a particular question appearing in N games is

1 - .99^N

There are 700 questions so the odds of seeing them all should be

(1 - .99^N)^700  

I used the calulator build in the the google search to get these probabilties for N games

 400    3.11421585 × 10-6
 500    0.00990699129
 600    0.185345398
 700    0.539836362
 800    0.798043636
 900    0.920751096
1000    0.970231549
1100    0.988999416
1200    0.995959325

Disclaimer:  It's been 20 years since I took a stats course, so my calculations may be completely out to lunch. 

 

 

 

 

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   05-14-2008, 6:23 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
 MysticWeirdo wrote:

Disclaimer:  It's been 20 years since I took a stats course, so my calculations may be completely out to lunch. 

 

Definitely out to lunch.  Following the same logic I came up with the probabily of seeing both side of a coin on 2 tosses as 56% when it should be 50%.   The approximation improved as the number of tosses increases.  

I believe my numbers are at best an overestimate.

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   05-14-2008, 6:36 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
I'm currently at 575 or so and still no achievement. If I don't get it by like 750 that will be total bs. Anyway, I've had enough of this game for now- time to play some Assault Heroes 2 !

My Geometry Wars 2 Scores below:

http://card.mygamercard.net/apps/geowars2/k4rn4ge.png
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   05-14-2008, 6:58 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions

I'm pretty sure this formula is accurate. I do not remember enough math to do it in shorthand:

N = 700

1 + 1/((N-1)/N) + 1/((N-2)/N) + 1/((N-3)/N) ... + 1/((N-699)/N)

If you take the sum of that series you get 4990.307 questions. Divide that by 7 since there are 7 questions per game and round and you get 713 games. This assumes that you are given questions randomly and questions could repeat in one game.

If the developer has put into place any type of algorithm to limit repeat questions, then the AVERAGE games to play should be less than 713.

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   05-14-2008, 7:11 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions

I think there needs to be some factorials in the right equation.  My math is to rusty to come up with it.

It looks like I have got the achievement, I think I'm around 400 games but won't be home for another 3 hours to check (or turn off the game).

 

 

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   05-14-2008, 7:17 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions

Hmm,

 

My second account which was in all but 8 of the games as my main account doesn't have the achievements.  I wonder if you need to be the host of the game for the questions to count.  

 

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   05-14-2008, 7:33 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
 MysticWeirdo wrote:

I think there needs to be some factorials in the right equation.  My math is to rusty to come up with it.

It looks like I have got the achievement, I think I'm around 400 games but won't be home for another 3 hours to check (or turn off the game).

I checked the leaderboard, you are at game 363.

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   05-14-2008, 8:34 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
Wow I'm the unluckiest one yet... the highest amount of games played without the achievement.

My Geometry Wars 2 Scores below:

http://card.mygamercard.net/apps/geowars2/k4rn4ge.png
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   05-14-2008, 9:21 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
 MysticWeirdo wrote:
 MysticWeirdo wrote:

Disclaimer:  It's been 20 years since I took a stats course, so my calculations may be completely out to lunch. 

 

Definitely out to lunch.  Following the same logic I came up with the probabily of seeing both side of a coin on 2 tosses as 56% when it should be 50%.   The approximation improved as the number of tosses increases.  

I believe my numbers are at best an overestimate.


LOL, awesome.

Smile [:)]

"No, I will not shoot that lion!"
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   05-15-2008, 12:31 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
450 games and still no achievement, but for the first time I have made it to the first page of a game's leaderboards. That's kind of neat.
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   05-15-2008, 1:16 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions

 Panthera onca wrote:
450 games and still no achievement, but for the first time I have made it to the first page of a game's leaderboards. That's kind of neat.

It looks like you got it now.  

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   05-15-2008, 1:19 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
SnapDragon and I are at nearly 620 games right now and no achievement. Guess we are the unlucky ones.

My Geometry Wars 2 Scores below:

http://card.mygamercard.net/apps/geowars2/k4rn4ge.png
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   05-15-2008, 1:46 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
 MysticWeirdo wrote:

 Panthera onca wrote:
450 games and still no achievement, but for the first time I have made it to the first page of a game's leaderboards. That's kind of neat.

It looks like you got it now.  

Yup. FINALLY!  Somewhere around game 460. Shutting my 360 off for a well deserved rest. LOL I'm actually impressed that it ran for 3 days straight without locking up!

Good luck to everyone else still trying to get this one. Hope you get it soon!

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   05-15-2008, 3:23 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
I tried something that I'm not so sure about now. I deleted the game from my hard drive and re-downloaded it. I hope that doesn't erase my progress of the questions I got so far. I thought it may give me newer questions.

My Geometry Wars 2 Scores below:

http://card.mygamercard.net/apps/geowars2/k4rn4ge.png
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   05-15-2008, 3:34 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions

 K4rn4ge wrote:
I tried something that I'm not so sure about now. I deleted the game from my hard drive and re-downloaded it. I hope that doesn't erase my progress of the questions I got so far. I thought it may give me newer questions.

I think the progress gets written to your profile since there's no save file.  

I wonder if changing your locale to Canada or the UK so you get that countries questions instead would help. 

 

 

 

 

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   05-15-2008, 4:38 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
 MysticWeirdo wrote:

 K4rn4ge wrote:
I tried something that I'm not so sure about now. I deleted the game from my hard drive and re-downloaded it. I hope that doesn't erase my progress of the questions I got so far. I thought it may give me newer questions.

I think the progress gets written to your profile since there's no save file.  

I wonder if changing your locale to Canada or the UK so you get that countries questions instead would help. 

 

 

 

 



Hmm thats a good idea. I think I may try that.

My Geometry Wars 2 Scores below:

http://card.mygamercard.net/apps/geowars2/k4rn4ge.png
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   05-16-2008, 12:08 AM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
I don't know what the odds are of seeing all 700 questions are but after playing over 430 games, I can say most games I have played lately  have repeated a least 2 questions I have seen already.I see any where from 4 to 5 new questions (sometimes only 3 new questions) a game now.I have very,very few games where I haven't seen all 7 questions in one game. The guys that got the achievement did you leave the(XBOX360) game running until you got it or did you let it run for a while shut if off and started it again later?

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   05-16-2008, 1:38 AM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
Ok guys, I am a statistician for a living, I do not have this game though, but if I understand the question you are trying to ask here I can answer it, as it is a well understood problem in statistics.  If the question is 'how many questions do I need to be asked on average before I see all 700 questions' then the answer follows the logic of the standard "coupon collector problem" which is simply the sum of a collection of geometric random variables (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coupon_collector's_problem).

The given result found in most probability textbooks is approximately nlogn, with n=700 this leads to approximately 4586, a more accurate approximation is given on the wikipedia link.

Edit: The above of course assumes at each stage the probability fo seeing each question is 1/n ie you are equally likely to see each question at every stage.

Second Edit: This nlogn is an asymptotic result, it will make no sense when n is 'small'
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   05-16-2008, 8:21 AM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions

 o0 WILKY 0o wrote:
I don't know what the odds are of seeing all 700 questions are but after playing over 430 games, I can say most games I have played lately  have repeated a least 2 questions I have seen already.I see any where from 4 to 5 new questions (sometimes only 3 new questions) a game now.I have very,very few games where I haven't seen all 7 questions in one game. The guys that got the achievement did you leave the(XBOX360) game running until you got it or did you let it run for a while shut if off and started it again later?

I kept switching mine off between sessions.

I always made sure i exited the game and then used exit to arcade from the menu, rather than just turn the console off, because i wasn't sure when the game was saving my stats.

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   05-16-2008, 12:23 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions

 ThomGuestAcc wrote:

The given result found in most probability textbooks is approximately nlogn, with n=700 this leads to approximately 4586, a more accurate approximation is given on the wikipedia link.

Thanks, I knew there had to be a concise formula for the brute force calculations I was doing. That does closely match with the results of my simulation and the formula I posted near the top of this thread.

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   05-16-2008, 12:26 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions

 o0 WILKY 0o wrote:
The guys that got the achievement did you leave the(XBOX360) game running until you got it or did you let it run for a while shut if off and started it again later?

I ran it for 3 days straight. I did exit out and play another game once during that time and occasionally I would exit to the main Wits & Wagers menu to check the leaderboards (until I noticed I could do that by pausing the game). After I got the 50 online games achievement I started playing local mode with only 3 AI's, as that goes much faster.

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   05-16-2008, 1:49 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
 Panthera onca wrote:

 o0 WILKY 0o wrote:
The guys that got the achievement did you leave the(XBOX360) game running until you got it or did you let it run for a while shut if off and started it again later?

I ran it for 3 days straight. I did exit out and play another game once during that time and occasionally I would exit to the main Wits & Wagers menu to check the leaderboards (until I noticed I could do that by pausing the game). After I got the 50 online games achievement I started playing local mode with only 3 AI's, as that goes much faster.

I left it running while I went to work on 6 weekdays, and when I was don't some stuff on my computer on the weekend.  The 360 got a rest at night while I was sleeping. 

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   05-18-2008, 12:16 AM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
I'm at 200 and haven't gotten it yet. 
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   05-18-2008, 12:19 AM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions

That's good to know.  I think I might pick this up.  Sounds like repeats are not a problem.

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   05-18-2008, 7:35 AM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions

Oy.

The way this thread is going, looks like I have a long way to go. I have only played a little over 100 games...

I wish this game kept track of the questions its played,
 because I have gotten a few questions more than 10 times... >_<

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   05-18-2008, 10:21 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
The game does keep track of the questions you have seen, but if you are playing online other people may not have seen the questions you have and then you will get repeats.
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   05-19-2008, 11:17 PM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
 MasterCronus wrote:
The game does keep track of the questions you have seen, but if you are playing online other people may not have seen the questions you have and then you will get repeats.

You seem to imply that if you play single player offline then you won't see repeats, but that isn't the case.

This space for rent.
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   05-20-2008, 11:20 AM
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Re: Odds of Seeing All 700 Questions
 x Zot x wrote:
 MasterCronus wrote:
The game does keep track of the questions you have seen, but if you are playing online other people may not have seen the questions you have and then you will get repeats.

You seem to imply that if you play single player offline then you won't see repeats, but that isn't the case.


Trust me... I've tried everything and I still see many repeats. I left my game on for loads of hours and have around 650 games "played" and no achievement. I am probably not playing this game again until there is a patch.

My Geometry Wars 2 Scores below:

http://card.mygamercard.net/apps/geowars2/k4rn4ge.png
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