people had this problem in nhl 11 also.
try signing out of live and changing your time and date settings back a year.
delete your online pass, re-download it, turn off your console, and turn it back on and sign back in. this worked for some people last year, including myself.
or do both just to be safe,
i had the same issue --- couldnt connect to the servors to play nhl 11 but i could connect for battlefield.